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A new poll released today from Grinnell College puts President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump neck-and-neck for the 2024 election among likely voters — though nearly 20 percent said they would vote for someone else. According to the poll, which asked who voters would choose if the 2024 election were today, both Biden and Trump would win 40 percent each of the vote, respectively.
The findings split on partisan lines, with independents slightly preferring Trump. The poll also took the temperature on Biden’s approval rating, finding that a majority “disapproved of his performance.”
“Nearly one in five likely voters say they will vote for someone else. The size of this undecided group and its unpredictability adds a lot of uncertainty to the election outlook,” said the poll’s director, Peter Hanson, an associate professor of political science at Grinnell.
This ambivalence is well-represented amongst Gen Z, Rachel Janfaza at Teen Vogue reported back in August, though recent polling from Change Research found that youth voters – 79 percent of whom say they’ll vote in 2024 – would mostly vote for Biden, of those who responded. That polling also found that young women, trans, nonbinary, and gender-nonconforming people lean further to the left than young men, writes Teen Vogue’s Fortesa Latifi.
The Grinnell College National Poll was conducted over six days in October 2023, surveying just over 1,000 Americans 18 and older. Other takeaways from the poll related to public sentiment on the safety of U.S. democracy, and term limits for Congress and the Supreme Court. A majority believe that our democracy is under major threat, five percentage points more than two years ago; a majority also support imposing term limits on the Supreme Court and Congress, as well as abolishing the Electoral College.
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