Is the TikTok Ban Really Going to Happen? What We Know

It’s now up to the Supreme Court.
TikTok app on cell phone
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TikTok’s potential ban in the US is just days away, leaving users and creators alike in a state of limbo.

After years of “will they or won’t they,” US lawmakers in 2024 successfully passed a bill that could lead to a total TikTok ban in the US. It was signed into law by President Biden, and requires TikTok’s China-based parent company, ByteDance, to either sell TikTok to a non-Chinese buyer by January 19 or face a complete ban of its app in the United States.

With the deadline looming ever closer, everyone is wondering what will happen to the app. Could geopolitics really mean the end of our favorite sh*t-posters and “get ready with me” accounts?

To make sense of the confusion and headlines, we’ve rounded up what you need to know about the TikTok ban bill — including the odds of it being blocked by the Supreme Court.

How we got here: A brief history of the push to ban TikTok

Talk of a national TikTok ban began brewing as early as 2020, when Donald Trump attempted to enact one via executive order, citing the potential for the app’s user data to be exploited by the Chinese Communist Party. That order was revoked when Joe Biden assumed the presidency, and a new executive order said the US would instead evaluate TikTok for risk using a "rigorous, evidence-based analysis.” Meanwhile, TikTok agreed to take additional steps to protect US data through an alliance with Oracle.

But in 2022, TikTok data security fears were stoked again when FBI Director Chris Wray shared concerns about the app’s For You Page algorithm and whether it could be used by the Chinese government to “manipulate content, and if they want to, to use it for influence operations.”

Although Wray’s worries — which included that TikTok could be forced, per Chinese national security laws, to share data with the government upon request — were only speculative, anti-TikTok lawmakers like Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) were quick to use them as ammunition. By March 2023, when TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew was called to testify in a (bizarre) five-hour US congressional hearing, many lawmakers seemed ready to take action against the app, despite their apparent lack of familiarity with it.

Ultimately, confusion over how and where TikTok stores its data helped usher in the 2024 bill. In the congressional hearing, Chew repeatedly denied that the app gave its US-user data to the Chinese government or that the government had requested such data, telling Congress that ByteDance, the app's parent company, had not “spied on Americans at the direction of the Chinese Communist Party” — the primary complaint from suspicious Republicans. Similar assertions were made by other TikTok executives, such as chief operating officer Vanessa Pappas, who testified at an earlier Senate hearing that the company stores American-user data outside of China.

A 2023 Forbes investigation found that user data specific to paid US content creators is stored in China. TikTok clarified that this “creator data” is distinct from the types of user data covered in the hearing, saying, “We stand by the statements made by our company executives to Congress.” But further reporting has poked additional holes in TikTok’s assertions that US-user data stays out of China; a Wall Street Journal investigation in January 2024 suggested that TikTok employees sometimes share US user data with ByteDance offices outside of official channels.

That reporting, however, speaks only to where data is stored and if or how ByteDance employees have access to it, not whether the Chinese government does. Despite lawmakers conflating the existence of US user data in China as evidence the Chinese government must be exploiting it, the fact remains: US intelligence has found no real proof of TikTok ever colluding with the Chinese government.

Although the threat of collusion remained hypothetical, the TikTok “divest-or-ban” bill ultimately passed easily. Given that China has banned the export of Chinese-created algorithms, this essentially removes divestment as an option even if ByteDance wanted to sell TikTok (and the company has said it doesn’t). This means a ban, per the bill, may be the only option.

What’s the deal with ByteDance? Are the security concerns valid?

If you’ve been trying to make sense of TikTok’s (potential) ban, you’ve likely spent time reading up on ByteDance, the app’s parent company. You may be wondering: Do US lawmakers have an issue with ByteDance or with TikTok? What’s the difference?

Bytedance was founded in Beijing in 2012 by a 27-year-old software engineer named Zhang Yiming. The company has since been nicknamed “App Factory” due to the number of mega-popular apps it has churned out, TikTok being just one of them. Despite the company being global — in the congressional hearing, Chew testified that 60% of Bytedance is owned by global investors, 20% is owned by Zhang, and 20% by employees around the world — US lawmakers have long zeroed in on ByteDance’s status as a “Chinese company.”

Of course, as a company based in Beijing, there are certain laws and norms that ByteDance is subject to. Like most other companies in China, ByteDance is legally required to establish an in-house committee composed of employees who are Communist Party members, and the company has also given the Chinese government a 1% stake in one of its key subsidiaries. But neither of those things prove the Chinese government is mining TikTok’s US data.

It should be said that there has been at least one proven data misuse incident tied to ByteDance: In late 2022, the company confirmed it had fired its chief internal auditor for using journalists’ IP addresses and user data in an attempt to uncover source leaks at the company. But that incident remains separate from any claims of government interference.

Meanwhile, TikTok itself has never actually operated in mainland China and has also made moves to distance itself from ByteDance. The app, which was specifically built for non-Chinese markets, is headquartered in Singapore and Los Angeles. During the congressional hearing, Chew confirmed to Congress that “TikTok, as a US company incorporated in the United States, is subject to the laws of the United States” — in stark contrast to lawmakers’ efforts to brand the app as Chinese government-controlled.

So what’s really behind the TikTok ban bill?

Lawmakers have not only been focused on national security and data privacy; Congress has taken an “everything but the kitchen sink” approach in its issues with TikTok, citing child safety and accusations that the algorithm is addictive. The resulting mishmash of critiques has muddled good-faith criticism with groundless, ignorant reactions and concerns that would be more correctly applied across all social media platforms, not just TikTok.

As explained by Fight for the Future’s Evan Greer on CNN, while TikTok certainly does have a “surveillance and capitalist business model, which vacuums up as much personal information about users as possible and then uses it to serve content that keeps us clicking, scrolling, and generating ad revenue,” so do most major US social media platforms, including Meta’s Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and X.

How all major tech companies handle personal user data of course matters, but zeroing in on ByteDance’s Beijing headquarters as proof alone of TikTok’s data privacy risks smacks of Sinophobia, as pointed out by some politicians like Representative Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). And in Politico, Zachary Karabell called the hostility at TikTok’s congressional hearing “a reminder that a hardening stance against China is one of the few areas of genuine bipartisanship.”

In addition to anti-Chinese sentiment, others are also questioning the role anti-Palestinian sentiment has played in the bill’s passage. Since the bill became law, at least two Republican lawmakers have, according to Rolling Stone, suggested that the app has fueled too much sympathy for Gazans. This includes Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who said, "Some wonder why there was such overwhelming support for us to shut down potentially TikTok or other entities of that nature. If you look at the postings on TikTok and the number of mentions of Palestinians, relative to other social media sites — it's overwhelmingly so among TikTok broadcasts." (Also worth noting is that the TikTok bill was bundled with a foreign aid package that included $26.4 billion in aid for Israel, including $4 billion to replenish Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.)

Of course there’s also the question of money. As Justin Sherman wrote in Slate, “Some countries will look at the US seeking to expel a major Chinese tech company, one that is now competitive with US giants (and that Facebook wants to sink), and wonder whether it’s the US using national security as a cover to go after a rival of domestic social media giants.”

If it does go into effect, what would a TikTok ban look like?

If a TikTok ban goes into effect, the app could get pulled from app stores, meaning there would be no way to download updates — but it couldn't be removed from phones where it has already been downloaded. Theoretically, if the US follows the lead of India — where the app has been banned since January 2021 — the government could try and force internet service providers to block the app.

The potential consequences are severe, particularly for young people. Although some polls have asserted that as many as half of Americans approve of a forced sale or ban on TikTok, those polls often fail to show generational divides. A late 2023 survey from the Pew Research Center found not only that a dwindling number of US adults support a national TikTok ban, but that very few teens — just 18% — support it.

For those who oppose the bill, many worry that a TikTok ban would wipe out an entire income source for young people in particular, as 80.3% of TikTok creators are 24 years old or younger. TikTok claims a full ban would cost small businesses and creators in the US $1.3 billion in the first month alone. The app provides a free global marketing platform, and it has recently pushed the formation of an in-app marketplace that allows small businesses and creators to thrive.

In addition to the immediate negative effects on individuals financially, experts such as University of Michigan information professor Oliver Haimson warn that a TikTok ban may set a precedent for future app bans if the US government decides it doesn't like what’s happening behind the scenes at a specific company.

And whether it’s the intention of lawmakers or not, many young people say a TikTok ban would restrict their access to news and advocacy efforts. Nia Nostos, a 25-year-old military veteran who has been using TikTok for years tells Teen Vogue, “TikTok has proven to be a very effective tool in educating and organizing activists, not just when it comes to [pro]-Palestinian advocacy, but in many ways that counter the narratives that are more comfortable to establishment politicians. Politicians are really just scared that they can’t control the narrative anymore.”

Will a TikTok ban work? Or will it be blocked by courts?

TikTok has already responded to the bill by suing the US government, saying the bill violates the First Amendment by restricting free speech. The lawsuit also claims the bill violates TikTok’s Fifth Amendment right to due process by having effectively declared the company’s guilt without trial or proof.

Not long after that suit, another was brought against the US government by eight TikTok content creators, who maintain the bill has also violated their First Amendment rights. One of the eight creators said in a statement: “Losing the platform would be losing not only my income but my most effective means of connecting with people around the world. I’m proud to be part of this lawsuit and to stand up for everyone who counts on TikTok like I do.”

The central arguments of both lawsuits have won support among some legal scholars, who say that citing unspecified national security concerns isn’t enough to justify a First Amendment violation. The cases have been consolidated and are headed to the Supreme Court on January 10. Unless the Supreme Court steps in to overturn or pause it — or ByteDance agrees to sell its US arm — the ban is set to take effect on January 19.

Despite Trump’s previous support of the TikTok ban, he recently expressed support for the app, calling it a “unique medium for freedom of expression” in a brief filed to the Supreme Court in December. The Justice Department has urged the Supreme Court to reject this delay.

Trump previously met with TikTok executives and has over 14 million followers on the platform, as per the New York Times. Most recently, Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary said he has joined People’s Bid for TikTok in an attempt to buy the platform in a multibillion dollar deal; however, he said in a recent interview that he’d need Trump’s help to successfully do so.

All that being said, it could take years before a ban is able to take effect. In the meantime, though, access to the app has been and continues to be restricted at the state level. Thirty-nine US states have banned the app on state-owned devices and a growing list of colleges and universities have banned TikTok on school devices and from campus Wi-Fi.

As we wait to see what comes of the challenges in court, TikTok in the US remains fully legal (if not available on all devices and Wi-Fi networks).

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